Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Abha at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 1.30 (Abha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Abha 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Abha trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Abha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 51% | Abha 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.09 xG and Abha 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.865 / defence 0.890 | Abha attack 1.106 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.148. Data: 41 Al-Ettifaq games / 41 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 29% | Abha 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Abha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Abha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 29% | Abha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.09 / Abha 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.865 / def 0.890 | Abha attack 1.106 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Abha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Abha xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Abha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance of winning, Abha a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Abha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Abha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.86x the league average against Abha's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.45
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.22
1.13
Abha xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.13 for Abha, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 11W 14D 16L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 18L across 41 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.15 PPG, Abha on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 5W 6D 9L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Abha's away record stands at 5W 3D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.00 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Abha have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Abha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.05 PPG; Abha away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Abha in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Abha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Al-Ettifaq 3-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Abha 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 45% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 30% of games; Abha in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 45% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 45% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Abha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Abha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Abha 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.09 xG and Abha 1.13 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Abha attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 29% | Abha 37%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 51%, Abha 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.15 PPG, Abha 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.