Al Baten 0-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Al Baten take on Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al-Batin FC Stadium to face Al Baten in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 September 2021 at 16:35 UTC.
Form
Al Baten (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al Baten's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al Taee's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Al Baten — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Al Taee — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Baten 33% | Al Taee 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Baten 33% | Al Taee 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.12 xG and Al Taee 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.781 / defence 1.282 | Al Taee attack 0.658 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.058. Al Baten's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Al Baten games / 3 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 37% | Draw 39% | Al Taee 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.70 | Draw 2.56 | Al Taee 4.00. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 50% | Al Taee 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Sep 2021, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 37% | Draw 39% | Al Taee 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Baten 1.12 / Al Taee 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.781 / def 1.282 | Al Taee attack 0.658 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Taee xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Baten vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:35 on Thursday 16 September 2021 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Al Baten 0 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Baten vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al Taee part of?
Al Baten vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 37% chance of winning, Al Taee a 25% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Baten and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Baten and Al Taee in?
Al Baten (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-L. Al Taee (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.66x) against Al Baten's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.74
39%
2.60
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.01
0.89
Al Taee xG
2.74
37%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al Baten and 0.89 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Baten come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Baten carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al Baten are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Al Baten or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Taee in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taee won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
1
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Taee?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al Taee have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2023, when Al Baten 4-3 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al Baten) and 33% (Al Taee) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al Baten and 33% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Taee in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Baten's recent matches and 33% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Baten's recent games and 33% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Baten's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten and Al Taee finished level at 0-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.12 xG and Al Taee 0.89 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Baten fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Taee landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.78 / defence 1.28 against Al Taee attack 0.66 / defence 1.08, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 37% | Draw 39% | Al Taee 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 33%, Al Taee 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taee's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Baten arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Baten conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.