Al Baten 0-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Al Baten take on Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Baten and Al Shabab meet at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten's home record at Al-Batin FC Stadium: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Pro League appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al Shabab (all games): 2W 3D 2L across 7 Pro League outings this term — 1.29 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 1.57. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.29 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.86 for Al Baten, 1.29 for Al Shabab — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 43% versus Al Shabab 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 43% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.10 xG and Al Shabab 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.736 / defence 1.146 | Al Shabab attack 0.726 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.250. Al Baten's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al Baten's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Al Baten games / 7 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 33% | Draw 38% | Al Shabab 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Al Shabab 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Baten 33% | Al Shabab 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 33% | Draw 38% | Al Shabab 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Baten 1.10 / Al Shabab 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.736 / def 1.146 | Al Shabab attack 0.726 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al Shabab xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Baten vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al Shabab?
Al Baten 0 - 3 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Baten vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Baten vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 33% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Baten and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Baten and Al Shabab in?
Al Baten (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.73x) against Al Baten's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
38%
2.65
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.14
1.04
Al Shabab xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.04 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Al Baten have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab's form line: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Baten.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Baten have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Baten's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.33 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Shabab have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 5 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Baten
0
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Shabab?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 0, Al Shabab have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2023, when Al Baten 2-4 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 33%, Al Shabab 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al Baten and 33% for Al Shabab.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Shabab in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Baten's recent matches and 67% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Baten's recent games and 33% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Baten 0-3 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.10 xG and Al Shabab 1.04 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Baten fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Shabab outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Al Shabab attack 0.73 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 33% | Draw 38% | Al Shabab 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 43%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.