Al Baten 0-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Baten at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Baten host Al-Fateh at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 16:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Pro League matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Baten at 1.33 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Al Baten trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 67% versus Al-Fateh 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Baten 67% | Al-Fateh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.39 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.926 / defence 1.143 | Al-Fateh attack 0.743 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.066. Data: 3 Al Baten games / 3 Al-Fateh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Baten 45% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Fateh 4.76. Al Baten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Baten at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Baten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Al Baten 67% | Al-Fateh 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 45% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Baten 1.39 / Al-Fateh 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.926 / def 1.143 | Al-Fateh attack 0.743 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:40 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Al Baten 0 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 45% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fateh in?
Al Baten (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
45%
2.25
35%
2.87
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.30
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
2.25
45%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Baten and 0.90 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Baten's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Baten on 1.33 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Baten are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Baten have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al Baten or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Baten and Al-Fateh runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fateh go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Baten's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
0
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 67%, Al-Fateh 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Al Baten and 0% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 33%; Al Baten have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Baten's recent matches and 33% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Baten's recent games and 0% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Baten 0-2 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.39 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Baten fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Al-Fateh attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 45% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 21%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 67%, Al-Fateh 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 1.33 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Baten managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.