Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Nassr make the trip to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 15:40 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this season: 2W 4D 0L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Nassr (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1.40 for Al-Nassr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Al-Nassr in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% and Al-Nassr 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% | Al-Nassr 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.26 xG and Al-Nassr 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.021 / defence 0.943 | Al-Nassr attack 0.924 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.051. Data: 12 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 10 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Nassr 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 43% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% | Al-Nassr 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.26 / Al-Nassr 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.021 / def 0.943 | Al-Nassr attack 0.924 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al-Nassr xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 15:40 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 44% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (0.92x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 12/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.48
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.18
0.92
Al-Nassr xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.92 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 4D 3L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 1.40 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al-Nassr 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 50% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 75% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 50% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Nassr defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.26 xG and Al-Nassr 0.92 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Al-Nassr attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 27%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Nassr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 20%, Al-Nassr 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 PPG, Al-Nassr 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.