Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Baten travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 November 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 4D 0L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Baten have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Baten have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.20 PPG, Al Baten 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Al Baten trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% versus Al Baten 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al Baten 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 xG and Al Baten 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.100 / defence 0.996 | Al Baten attack 0.673 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.101. Data: 10 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 10 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 30% | Al Baten 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Al Baten 5.26. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% | Al Baten 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 30% | Al Baten 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 / Al Baten 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.100 / def 0.996 | Al Baten attack 0.673 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Al Baten xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten kicked off at 15:45 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 51% chance of winning, Al Baten a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.35
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.11
0.74
Al Baten xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.74 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 6D 2L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.20 PPG, Al Baten on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L).
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.70 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Al Baten in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al Baten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al Baten have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2022, when Al Baten 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 80%, Al Baten 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 40% for Al Baten.
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Baten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 40% of Al Baten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 40% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Baten 1-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 xG and Al Baten 0.74 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Al Baten attack 0.67 / defence 1.09, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 30% | Al Baten 19%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, Al Baten 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.20 PPG, Al Baten 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.