Abha 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Abha welcome Damac to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 January 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Abha have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Abha at 1.30 PPG versus Damac's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Abha have won 0, Damac 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 52% versus Damac 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 50% | Damac 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.24 xG and Damac 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.936 / defence 1.193 | Damac attack 1.101 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.150. Data: 42 Abha games / 42 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 31% | Draw 25% | Damac 44%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Damac 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 50% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 31% | Draw 25% | Damac 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Abha 1.24 / Damac 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.936 / def 1.193 | Damac attack 1.101 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Damac (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Damac xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Damac kick off?
Abha vs Damac kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Damac?
Abha 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Abha vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Damac part of?
Abha vs Damac is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 31% chance of winning, Damac a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Abha and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 2W.
What form are Abha and Damac in?
Abha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.94x the league average against Damac's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
31%
3.20
25%
3.96
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Abha xG
Total xG
2.75
1.51
Damac xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Abha and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Abha and 1.51 for Damac, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Abha have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 9D 19L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 16W 14D 12L from 42 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.21 PPG, Damac on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
On the road, Damac have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.26 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Damac in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Damac have gone 16W 14D 12L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Damac away?
Abha's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.57 PPG; Damac away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Abha or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Damac in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Damac runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
4
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Damac have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Abha 0-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 57%, Damac 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Abha) and 57% (Damac).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Abha's games and 57% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Abha's recent games and 57% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Damac tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Damac 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.24 xG and Damac 1.51 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Damac attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 31% | Draw 25% | Damac 44%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Abha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 50%, Damac 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.21 PPG, Damac 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.