Abha 1-3 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 46%, yet in-form Damac provide a compelling counter-argument — this Abha vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Abha welcome Damac to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 September 2021 at 16:40 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Damac — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Abha register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 80% and Damac 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Abha 60% | Damac 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.57 xG and Damac 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.868 / defence 1.094 | Damac attack 0.824 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.143. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Abha games / 5 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 46% | Draw 32% | Damac 21%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Damac 4.76. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Damac (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 80% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 46% | Draw 32% | Damac 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Abha 1.57 / Damac 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.868 / def 1.094 | Damac attack 0.824 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Abha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Damac xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Damac kick off?
Abha vs Damac kicked off at 16:40 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Damac?
Abha 1 - 3 Damac.
Where is Abha vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Damac part of?
Abha vs Damac is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 46% chance of winning, Damac a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Abha and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Damac in?
Abha (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.87x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.09
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Abha xG
Total xG
2.60
1.03
Damac xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
4%
22.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Abha and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Abha and 1.03 for Damac, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Abha have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Damac are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Damac in 60%.
Defensively: Damac in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Damac in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Damac have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Abha or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Damac in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Damac runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
4
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Damac have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Abha 0-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 80%, Damac at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Abha) and 20% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Damac in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Abha's games and 60% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Abha's recent games and 20% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Damac tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Damac in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Abha 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.57 xG and Damac 1.03 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Damac outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Damac attack 0.82 / defence 1.34, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 46% | Draw 32% | Damac 21%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Damac win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 60%, Damac 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Damac scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.