Abha 1-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Abha at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Abha and Al Wehda Club meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Abha have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al Wehda Club (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 0W 1D 7L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.12 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Abha's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al Wehda Club's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Abha lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 59% versus Al Wehda Club 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 71% | Al Wehda Club 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.72 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.015 / defence 1.037 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.661 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Data: 47 Abha games / 17 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 59% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 16%. Fair-value odds: Abha 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wehda Club 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Abha (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 50% | Al Wehda Club 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 59% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Abha 1.72 / Al Wehda Club 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.015 / def 1.037 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.661 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Abha (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al Wehda Club xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Abha vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Wehda Club?
Abha 1 - 2 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Abha vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Abha vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 59% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Abha and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Wehda Club?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wehda Club 1W.
What form are Abha and Al Wehda Club in?
Abha (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Abha's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.66x) against Abha's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
59%
1.70
25%
3.96
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Abha xG
Total xG
2.51
0.78
Al Wehda Club xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
35.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Abha and 0.78 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Abha have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 1D 9L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, 0.94 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Abha against 0.94 for Al Wehda Club. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 0W 1D 7L from 8 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club in 24%.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 7W 1D 9L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Abha's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.62 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wehda Club won 4-0 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Abha
0
Draws
3
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Wehda Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al Wehda Club have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2024, when Abha 1-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Wehda Club?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 62%, Al Wehda Club 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Abha) and 25% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club in 88%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Abha's recent matches and 12% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Abha's recent games and 25% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Abha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Abha 1-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.72 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.78 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Wehda Club outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.66 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 59% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 16%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Wehda Club win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 71%, Al Wehda Club 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.29 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.