Abha 2-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Abha welcome Al Taee to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al Taee — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Taee's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Abha's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Abha, 0 for Al Taee and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Abha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Taee trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 50% versus Al Taee 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 47% | Al Taee 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.18 xG and Al Taee 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.858 / defence 1.215 | Al Taee attack 0.978 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.105. Data: 38 Abha games / 38 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 40%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taee 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Abha 40% | Al Taee 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Abha 1.18 / Al Taee 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.858 / def 1.215 | Al Taee attack 0.978 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al Taee xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Taee kick off?
Abha vs Al Taee kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 16 December 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Taee?
Abha 2 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Abha vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Taee part of?
Abha vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 33% chance of winning, Al Taee a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Abha and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taee?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 2W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Abha and Al Taee in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.86) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.71
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Abha xG
Total xG
2.50
1.31
Al Taee xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Abha and 1.31 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Abha have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 9D 17L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 16W 4D 18L from 38 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.18 PPG, Al Taee on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 6W 1D 12L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.16 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 16W 4D 18L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Taee away?
Abha's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.58 PPG; Al Taee away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Abha's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Abha
0
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 4, Al Taee have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Abha 2-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Taee?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 53%, Al Taee 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Abha) and 42% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Abha have failed to score in 26% of games; Al Taee in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Abha's recent matches and 26% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Abha's recent games and 42% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Taee tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Al Taee 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Taee 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.18 xG and Al Taee 1.31 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Al Taee attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 33% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 40%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Abha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 47%, Al Taee 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.18 PPG, Al Taee 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.