Abha 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al Shabab at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 12 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 0.71 xG and Al Shabab 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al Shabab attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.050. Data: 0 Abha games / 0 Al Shabab games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Abha 25% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 42%. Fair-value odds: Abha 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Al Shabab 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Abha's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 25% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Abha 0.71 / Al Shabab 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al Shabab attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Shabab xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Abha vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:15 on Thursday 12 August 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Abha 2 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Abha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Shabab part of?
Abha vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 25% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Abha and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Al Shabab in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
25%
4.06
33%
3.03
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Abha xG
Total xG
1.73
1.03
Al Shabab xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 18.2 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Abha and 1.03 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Pre-Season
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al Shabab runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2024, when Al Shabab won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al Shabab have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2024, when Al Shabab 5-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Shabab 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 0.71 xG and Al Shabab 1.03 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al Shabab attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 25% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 42%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Abha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.