Abha 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Abha take on Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Thursday 30 September 2021 at 16:35 UTC.
Form
Abha (all games): 1W 1D 4L across 6 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 1W 1D 1L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.67 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr have collected 1.80 PPG across 5 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.13 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Abha register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Al-Nassr in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Abha — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 80% and Al-Nassr 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 60% | Al-Nassr 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.28 xG and Al-Nassr 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.861 / defence 1.279 | Al-Nassr attack 0.829 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.227. Al-Nassr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Abha games / 5 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 32% | Draw 34% | Al-Nassr 33%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Nassr 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 100% | Al-Nassr 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 32% | Draw 34% | Al-Nassr 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Abha 1.28 / Al-Nassr 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.861 / def 1.279 | Al-Nassr attack 0.829 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Nassr xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Abha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:35 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Abha 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Abha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Abha vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 32% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Abha and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Al-Nassr in?
Abha (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (0.83x) against Abha's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
34%
2.94
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Abha xG
Total xG
2.58
1.30
Al-Nassr xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Abha and 1.30 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Abha's recent record stands at 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, a 0.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 2L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Abha are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-8 on 2 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Abha
1
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Abha 0-8 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Abha, 80% for Al-Nassr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Abha and 80% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Abha's games and 80% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Abha's matches and 80% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Abha and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Abha 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.28 xG and Al-Nassr 1.30 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Al-Nassr attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 32% | Draw 34% | Al-Nassr 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Al-Nassr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 60%, Al-Nassr 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.