Abha 2-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Abha at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 11 February 2022 at 12:05 UTC.
Form
Abha (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 1D 7L from 9 away outings — 0.44 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Abha. A 1.10 PPG lead over Al-Hazm (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Abha lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 53% versus Al-Hazm 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Abha 42% | Al-Hazm 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.07 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.862 / defence 1.195 | Al-Hazm attack 0.573 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.186. Data: 19 Abha games / 19 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 40% | Draw 35% | Al-Hazm 26%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Hazm 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Abha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Al-Hazm 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 12:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 40% | Draw 35% | Al-Hazm 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Abha 1.07 / Al-Hazm 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.862 / def 1.195 | Al-Hazm attack 0.573 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Abha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Abha vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 12:05 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Abha 2 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Abha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Abha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 40% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Abha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Hazm in?
Abha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.57x) against Abha's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
40%
2.53
35%
2.89
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Abha xG
Total xG
1.88
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Abha and 0.81 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Abha come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 4D 8L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Abha's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.74 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Hazm away?
Abha's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2024, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 56%, Al-Hazm 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Abha and 22% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Abha's recent matches and 22% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Abha's recent games and 22% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al-Hazm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Hazm 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.07 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Al-Hazm attack 0.57 / defence 1.13, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 40% | Draw 35% | Al-Hazm 26%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 42%, Al-Hazm 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Abha arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.