Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Spartak Moscow (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Spartak Moscow face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Lukoil Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Lukoil Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Spartak Moscow are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Spartak Moscow: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 3 for Krylia Sovetov, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Spartak Moscow and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 64% versus Krylia Sovetov 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 62% | Krylia Sovetov 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.50 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.180 / defence 0.719 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.083 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.285. Spartak Moscow's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Spartak Moscow games / 39 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 22%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Krylia Sovetov 4.55. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 60% | Krylia Sovetov 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.50 / Krylia Sovetov 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.180 / def 0.719 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.083 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Krylia Sovetov xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Lukoil Arena.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 46% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (10 meetings): Spartak Moscow 7W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 3W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.18x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.14
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
5%
20.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.00 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 39 games, going 21W 8D 10L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.10 PPG from 39 outings (10W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (2W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.23 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 21W 8D 10L in their last 39 games (1.82 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.15 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 60%, Krylia Sovetov 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Spartak Moscow and 55% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Spartak Moscow's games and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 55% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.