Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 0.80 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov in recent Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, CSKA Moscow in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 0, with 4 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that CSKA Moscow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 54% versus CSKA Moscow 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 49% | CSKA Moscow 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.22 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.025 / defence 1.213 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.127 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.285. Data: 39 Krylia Sovetov games / 39 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 24% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 47%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 2.13. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 70% | CSKA Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 24% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.22 / CSKA Moscow 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.025 / def 1.213 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.127 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.76
CSKA Moscow xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Samara Arena.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 24% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
Record (10 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 4 | CSKA Moscow 6W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.02x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.13x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
24%
4.16
29%
3.49
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.98
1.76
CSKA Moscow xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
4%
24.16
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.76 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 10W 13D 16L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 9L across 39 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 8W 7D 4L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 7W 6D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.51 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 20W 10D 9L in their last 39 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.63 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
4
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 58%, CSKA Moscow 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Krylia Sovetov) and 47% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 53% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 47% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.