Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Zaglebie Lubin take on Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Widzew Łódź at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at KGHM Zaglebie Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.50 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 3 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.812 / defence 0.846 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.993 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Zaglebie Lubin games / 43 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Draw 38% | Widzew Łódź 32%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Widzew Łódź 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Draw 38% | Widzew Łódź 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 48% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 / Widzew Łódź 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.812 / def 0.846 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.993 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Widzew Łódź xG
48%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 4W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
38%
2.66
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.15
1.10
Widzew Łódź xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.10 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 17W 12D 14L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 13W 12D 18L from 43 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.47 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 games (1.47 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.71 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 38%, Widzew Łódź 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 43% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 38% of games; Widzew Łódź in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 48% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 43% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.