Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków meet at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wieczysta Kraków have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1W 1D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Wisla Plock. A 0.58 PPG lead over Wieczysta Kraków (1.20 vs 0.62) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Wisla Plock half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Wieczysta Kraków half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 50% and Wieczysta Kraków 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 50% | Wieczysta Kraków 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.80 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.846 / defence 0.990 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.985 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Wisla Plock games / 8 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 29% | Wieczysta Kraków 24%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Wieczysta Kraków 4.17. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 20% | Wieczysta Kraków 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 29% | Wieczysta Kraków 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Wisla Plock 1.80 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.846 / def 0.990 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.985 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Wieczysta Kraków xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 47% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.85x the league average against Wieczysta Kraków's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wieczysta Kraków's attack (0.98x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.39
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
3.07
1.27
Wieczysta Kraków xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
25.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.27 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wieczysta Kraków, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 5L across 8 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wieczysta Kraków heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wieczysta Kraków's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.38 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Wieczysta Kraków away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.33 PPG; Wieczysta Kraków away: 0.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wieczysta Kraków see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Wisla Plock) and 33% (Wieczysta Kraków) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Wisla Plock and 33% for Wieczysta Kraków.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 67% of games; Wieczysta Kraków in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Wieczysta Kraków?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 33% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 33% of Wieczysta Kraków's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.