Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wisla Krakow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 outings — a 1.89 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 5W 0D 0L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.89 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.89 PPG (Wisla Krakow) versus 1.50 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wisla Krakow, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 78% and Zaglebie Lubin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 67% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.49 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.020 / defence 0.806 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.943 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.306. Data: 9 Wisla Krakow games / 43 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 45% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 22%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.55. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 45% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.49 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.020 / def 0.806 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.943 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Zaglebie Lubin xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 45% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (1.02) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
45%
2.23
34%
2.98
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.48
0.99
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
5%
20.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.99 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 2L across 9 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Krakow on 1.89 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zaglebie Lubin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 11 December 2021, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 50%, Zaglebie Lubin 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wisla Krakow) and 50% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Krakow's games and 75% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.