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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Widzew Łódź's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Radomiak Radom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Widzew Łódź 3W, Radomiak Radom 4W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 50% and Radomiak Radom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Radomiak Radom 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.997 / defence 0.887 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.940 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 34 Radomiak Radom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 54% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 21%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 4.76. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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