Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Widzew Łódź are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Widzew Łódź.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 54% versus Raków Częstochowa 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Raków Częstochowa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.889 / defence 1.130 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.965 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Widzew Łódź games / 43 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 37% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 32%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Raków Częstochowa lead the H2H ledger, but Widzew Łódź carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 37% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.53 / Raków Częstochowa 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.889 / def 1.130 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.965 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Raków Częstochowa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 37% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.20
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.96
1.42
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.42 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 12D 18L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.35 PPG from 43 outings (17W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.19 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (8W 3D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.47 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 7D 19L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.48 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 62%, Raków Częstochowa at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Widzew Łódź) and 62% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Widzew Łódź's games and 71% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 62% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.