Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Piast Gliwice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Widzew Łódź hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Piast Gliwice, with 0 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Widzew Łódź and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 54% versus Piast Gliwice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Piast Gliwice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.887 / defence 1.132 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.986 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Widzew Łódź games / 43 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 38%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Piast Gliwice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.24 / Piast Gliwice 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.887 / def 1.132 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.986 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 29% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 6W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.04
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.70
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.46 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 13W 12D 18L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 15W 9D 19L from 43 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.19 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 7W 4D 10L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.35 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.48 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 6, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 62%, Piast Gliwice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Widzew Łódź) and 57% (Piast Gliwice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Widzew Łódź's games and 57% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 57% of Piast Gliwice's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.