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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Piast Gliwice.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice meet at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Piast Gliwice haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Raków Częstochowa, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Piast Gliwice — a 0D 3W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 56% versus Piast Gliwice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 47% | Piast Gliwice 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.61 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.026 / defence 0.874 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.054 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Raków Częstochowa games / 34 Piast Gliwice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 24%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Piast Gliwice 4.17. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 20% | Piast Gliwice 80%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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