Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
zondacrypto Arena plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Wieczysta Kraków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at zondacrypto Arena, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Wieczysta Kraków's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games (0.62 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wieczysta Kraków away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.62 for Wieczysta Kraków — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Wieczysta Kraków in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Wieczysta Kraków half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 88% and Wieczysta Kraków 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Raków Częstochowa 88% | Wieczysta Kraków 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.30 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.082 / defence 1.387 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.985 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Raków Częstochowa games / 8 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 28%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Wieczysta Kraków 3.57. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Wieczysta Kraków 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 77% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.30 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.082 / def 1.387 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.985 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Wieczysta Kraków xG
77%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at zondacrypto Arena.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 48% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Wieczysta Kraków's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Wieczysta Kraków's attack (0.98x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 43/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.16
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
4.08
1.78
Wieczysta Kraków xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.34
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
10%
9.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
3%
35.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.78 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 0D 7L for 0.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wieczysta Kraków sit at 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.38 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 0.62 for Wieczysta Kraków. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Wieczysta Kraków have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.38 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Wieczysta Kraków in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Wieczysta Kraków away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 0.75 PPG; Wieczysta Kraków away: 0.25 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wieczysta Kraków see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Raków Częstochowa, 50% for Wieczysta Kraków — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Raków Częstochowa and 50% for Wieczysta Kraków. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wieczysta Kraków in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Wieczysta Kraków?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 50% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 50% of Wieczysta Kraków's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.