Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 0.60 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Radomiak Radom have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 63% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 56% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.30 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.081 / defence 1.378 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.756 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.306. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Raków Częstochowa games / 43 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 56% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 19%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 56% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.30 / Radomiak Radom 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.081 / def 1.378 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.756 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Radomiak Radom xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at zondacrypto Arena.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 56% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 5W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.10
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.66
1.36
Radomiak Radom xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
2%
51.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.36 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 17W 7D 19L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 13W 13D 17L from 43 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.35 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 8D 11L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.37 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 7D 19L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.48 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 52%, Radomiak Radom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Raków Częstochowa) and 62% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 62% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.