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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet in-form Raków Częstochowa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 5W 2D 3L at — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Radomiak Radom.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 71% and Raków Częstochowa 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | Raków Częstochowa 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.030 / defence 1.046 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.148 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Radomiak Radom games / 34 Raków Częstochowa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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