Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 1.70 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 1 for Legia Warszawa and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 43% versus Legia Warszawa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.77 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.375 / defence 0.979 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.168 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.031. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Pogon Szczecin games / 42 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Legia Warszawa 4.00. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 20% | Legia Warszawa 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.77 / Legia Warszawa 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.375 / def 0.979 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.168 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 51% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (5 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 2 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.38) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.14
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.95
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
4%
23.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.18 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 42 games, going 20W 8D 14L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.74 PPG from 42 outings (20W 13D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.62 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 12W 2D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.60 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 13D 9L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.90 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Legia Warszawa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 45%, Legia Warszawa 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Pogon Szczecin) and 40% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 55% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.77 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.38 / defence 0.98 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.62 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.