Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Wisla Plock's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 62% versus Wisla Plock 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 43% | Wisla Plock 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.85 xG and Wisla Plock 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.186 / defence 0.813 | Wisla Plock attack 0.987 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Legia Warszawa games / 42 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 53% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 18%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 5.56. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 53% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.85 / Wisla Plock 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.186 / def 0.813 | Wisla Plock attack 0.987 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wisla Plock xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 53% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.99x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.44
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.90
1.05
Wisla Plock xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
3%
35.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.05 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 17D 9L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.36 PPG from 42 outings (15W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.36 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 10W 8D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.02 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 16W 17D 9L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 15W 12D 15L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wisla Plock away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.81 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 52%, Wisla Plock 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Legia Warszawa) and 43% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Legia Warszawa's games and 67% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 43% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.