Stabaek 2-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 30 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nadderud Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 0L across 5 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 50% and Bodo/Glimt 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 50% | Bodo/Glimt 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.12 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.778 / defence 1.040 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.691 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.334. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.691 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Stabaek games / 10 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 17% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 64%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Bodo/Glimt 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 20% | Bodo/Glimt 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 17% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Stabaek 1.12 / Bodo/Glimt 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.778 / def 1.040 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.691 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 30 July 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Stabaek 2 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 17% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 64% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stabaek (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.78) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.69x) against Stabaek's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 2.35.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
17%
5.98
19%
5.30
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.47
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.98
17%
Home win
5.30
19%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
10%
10.43
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
2%
62.44
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Stabaek and 2.35 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 4W 4D 2L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.80 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 80%.
Defensively: Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.60 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Stabaek 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 20%, Bodo/Glimt 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Stabaek and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Stabaek's recent matches and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Stabaek's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 2-2 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.12 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 17% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 64%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 50%, Bodo/Glimt 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.