Lillestrom 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lillestrom face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Lillestrom versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Lillestrom (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 4W 0D 2L at — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 1.10 PPG clear of Lillestrom in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.70 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Viking in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Viking hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Viking — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 38% versus Viking 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 46% | Viking 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.36 xG and Viking 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.024 / defence 1.090 | Viking attack 1.032 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.214. Viking's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Lillestrom games / 42 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 37% | Draw 27% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Viking 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 67% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 37% | Draw 27% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Lillestrom 1.36 / Viking 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.024 / def 1.090 | Viking attack 1.032 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Viking xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Viking kick off?
Lillestrom vs Viking kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 July 2026.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Lillestrom 1 - 2 Viking.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Viking part of?
Lillestrom vs Viking is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 37% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lillestrom and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
Record (8 meetings): Lillestrom 2W | Draws 0 | Viking 6W.
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Viking (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lillestrom vs Viking?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.03x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 13/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
37%
2.74
27%
3.77
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.72
1.37
Viking xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.37 for Viking, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 8W 1D 4L from 13 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 11W 0D 2L across 13 games — 2.54 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 4W 0D 2L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Viking's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.77 scored and 1.00 conceded. Viking's attacking output running into Lillestrom's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 62%.
Defensively: Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 8W 1D 4L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Viking have gone 11W 0D 2L in their last 13 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Viking away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.00 PPG; Viking away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Viking in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Viking have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 67%, Viking 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Lillestrom and 50% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lillestrom's games and 50% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Lillestrom's matches and 50% of Viking's.
Do Lillestrom and Viking tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Viking in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Lillestrom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Lillestrom 1-2 at , Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.36 xG and Viking 1.37 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Viking attack 1.03 / defence 0.78, drawn from 13/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 37% | Draw 27% | Viking 37%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 46%, Viking 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.