Kristiansund BK 1-2 Start – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kristiansund Stadion plays host to Kristiansund BK versus Start in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 25 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kristiansund BK have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Start's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 7L across 8 road games this term (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 0.50 for Start. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kristiansund BK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Start in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kristiansund BK lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2020, ended 2–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kristiansund BK half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Start half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 50% and Start 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 50% | Start 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.91 xG and Start 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.786 / defence 0.953 | Start attack 0.873 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.211. Kristiansund BK's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Kristiansund BK games / 14 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 58% | Draw 23% | Start 19%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Start 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Start 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 58% | Draw 23% | Start 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.91 / Start 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.786 / def 0.953 | Start attack 0.873 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Start xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Start kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Start kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Start?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 2 Start.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Start part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Start is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 58% chance of winning, Start a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Start?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Start?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 2W | Draws 0 | Start 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Start in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Start (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Kristiansund BK vs Start?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.79x the league average against Start's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Start's attack (0.87x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 42/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.39
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.92
1.01
Start xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
35.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Start expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.01 for Start, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 3W 3D 8L from 14 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 9L across 14 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 0.50 for Start. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Start's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kristiansund BK are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.00 scored and 2.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Start in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Start have gone 1W 4D 9L in their last 14 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Start away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.14 PPG; Start away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Start — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
0
Draws
1
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Start?
From 3 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Start have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Start last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Start.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Start?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Kristiansund BK, 86% for Start — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Kristiansund BK and 86% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Kristiansund BK's games and 86% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 86% of Start's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Start tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Start in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Start defy the odds to beat Kristiansund BK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start beat Kristiansund BK 1-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.91 xG and Start 1.01 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Start outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Start attack 0.87 / defence 1.42, drawn from 42/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 58% | Draw 23% | Start 19%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Start win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 50%, Start 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Start's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 0.86 PPG, Start 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Start win broke the near-deadlock. Start (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.