Bodo/Glimt 6-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 0.74 xG and Haugesund 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 0.983 / defence 1.150 | Haugesund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.651 / away 1.478. Data: 1 Bodo/Glimt games / 1 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 19% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 54%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Haugesund 1.85. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 19% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Bodo/Glimt 0.74 / Haugesund 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 0.983 / def 1.150 | Haugesund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.651 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Haugesund xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 June 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt 6 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 19% chance of winning, Haugesund a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (0.98) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
19%
5.25
27%
3.72
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.18
1.45
Haugesund xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
4%
22.27
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.45 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Haugesund have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 6-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 0.74 xG and Haugesund 1.45 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 5.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Haugesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 19% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 54%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Bodo/Glimt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.