Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 0D 0L across 5 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bodo/Glimt have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brann have collected 2.00 PPG across 5 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Brann have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Brann have posted 2W 1D 0L from 3 away outings — 2.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.00 PPG lead over Brann (3.00 vs 2.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Brann in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
Brann — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 80% and Brann 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 100% | Brann 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.04 xG and Brann 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.517 / defence 1.092 | Brann attack 0.836 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.530. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.517 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 Bodo/Glimt games / 5 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 52% | Draw 21% | Brann 26%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Brann 3.85. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 80% | Brann 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 52% | Draw 21% | Brann 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.04 / Brann 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.517 / def 1.092 | Brann attack 0.836 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Brann xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 July 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Bodo/Glimt 5 - 0 Brann.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 52% chance of winning, Brann a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-0D-0L in 5 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Brann (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.52) and Brann's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.84x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
52%
1.91
21%
4.67
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.43
1.40
Brann xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
3%
29.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.40 for Brann, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 5W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brann's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Brann, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Bodo/Glimt's scoring rate against Brann's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Brann in 60%.
Defensively: Brann in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Early Season
Brann
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 games (3.00 PPG), while Brann have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Bodo/Glimt or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Brann in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
2
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, Brann have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Bodo/Glimt, 60% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bodo/Glimt and 80% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 80% of Brann's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Brann tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brann in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Brann 5-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.04 xG and Brann 1.40 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.52 / defence 1.09 against Brann attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 52% | Draw 21% | Brann 26%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 90% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 100%, Brann 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt scored 5 against a 3.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Brann managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.