Willem II 1-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vitesse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as Willem II welcome Vitesse to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Vitesse have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Vitesse away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 0.50 PPG versus Vitesse's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Willem II have won 1, Vitesse 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 41% versus Vitesse 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Vitesse 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.04 xG and Vitesse 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.773 / defence 1.130 | Vitesse attack 0.806 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.276. Willem II's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Willem II games / 29 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 39%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Vitesse 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Willem II 1.04 / Vitesse 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.773 / def 1.130 | Vitesse attack 0.806 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vitesse xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Vitesse kick off?
Willem II vs Vitesse kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Vitesse?
Willem II 1 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Willem II vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Vitesse part of?
Willem II vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 32% chance of winning, Vitesse a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Willem II and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 0W.
What form are Willem II and Vitesse in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.77) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.44
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.20
1.16
Vitesse xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Willem II and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Willem II and 1.16 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II come into this having played 29 games, going 6W 5D 18L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (13W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Vitesse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Willem II's home form reads 4W 3D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.71 points per game from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.21 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 6W 5D 18L in their last 29 games (0.79 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 13W 5D 11L in their last 29 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.07 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Vitesse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Willem II have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Willem II won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Willem II
0
Draws
0
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 4, Vitesse have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Vitesse?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 43%, Vitesse 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 50% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 36%; Willem II have failed to score in 50% of games; Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Willem II's recent matches and 43% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Willem II's recent games and 50% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Vitesse tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Vitesse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Vitesse 1-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.04 xG and Vitesse 1.16 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vitesse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against Vitesse attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 39%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Vitesse 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.