Willem II 3-0 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utrecht make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Utrecht have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Utrecht's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Willem II, 1.10 for Utrecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–5 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 42% versus Utrecht 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.13 xG and Utrecht 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.827 / defence 0.974 | Utrecht attack 0.837 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.253. Data: 33 Willem II games / 33 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Utrecht 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 30% | Utrecht 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Willem II 1.13 / Utrecht 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.827 / def 0.974 | Utrecht attack 0.837 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Willem II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Utrecht xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Utrecht kick off?
Willem II vs Utrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Utrecht?
Willem II 3 - 0 Utrecht.
Where is Willem II vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Utrecht part of?
Willem II vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 38% chance of winning, Utrecht a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Willem II and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Utrecht 1W.
What form are Willem II and Utrecht in?
Willem II (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Utrecht (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Willem II's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Utrecht's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.84x) against Willem II's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.40
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Utrecht xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Willem II and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Willem II and 1.02 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 8W 6D 19L from 33 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 10L across 33 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 6W 3D 7L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Utrecht's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.55 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 8W 6D 19L in their last 33 games (0.91 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Utrecht away?
Willem II's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.31 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Utrecht have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Willem II
0
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, Utrecht have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Willem II 2-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 38%, Utrecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Willem II) and 56% (Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Willem II's recent matches and 62% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Willem II's recent games and 56% of Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Utrecht tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Utrecht 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.13 xG and Utrecht 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Utrecht attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 38% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 32%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Utrecht's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.