Willem II 2-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PSV Eindhoven make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 4W 1D 1L across 6 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.17 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 3W 0D 0L from 3 road trips in Eredivisie this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.17 PPG for Willem II against 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 33% versus PSV Eindhoven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Willem II 67% | PSV Eindhoven 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 0.93 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.832 / defence 1.189 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.116 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.409. Data: 6 Willem II games / 6 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 18% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 59%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | PSV Eindhoven 1.69. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Willem II 33% | PSV Eindhoven 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 18% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Willem II 0.93 / PSV Eindhoven 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.832 / def 1.189 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.116 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.87
PSV Eindhoven xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven?
Willem II 2 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 18% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Willem II and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and PSV Eindhoven in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-0D-1L in 6 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Willem II's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.12x) against Willem II's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
18%
5.43
22%
4.49
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.80
1.87
PSV Eindhoven xG
5.43
18%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
35.24
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Willem II and 1.87 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II's recent record stands at 4W 1D 1L from 6 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 1L across 6 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.17 PPG for Willem II against 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PSV Eindhoven's away record stands at 3W 0D 0L across 3 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 2.50 PPG overall record — PSV Eindhoven travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. PSV Eindhoven's attacking output running into Willem II's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.00 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Willem II or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Willem II
1
Draws
2
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PSV Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Willem II) and 33% (PSV Eindhoven) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Willem II and 67% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 67%; Willem II have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Willem II's recent matches and 33% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 67% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Willem II and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 0.93 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.87 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 18% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 59%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 67%, PSV Eindhoven 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 2.17 PPG, PSV Eindhoven 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.