Willem II 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Groningen travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 1.25. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Groningen in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 0% versus Groningen 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.24 xG and Groningen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.754 / defence 1.328 | Groningen attack 1.025 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.136. Willem II's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Willem II games / 4 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 30% | Draw 25% | Groningen 44%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Willem II 0% | Groningen 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 30% | Draw 25% | Groningen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Willem II 1.24 / Groningen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.754 / def 1.328 | Groningen attack 1.025 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Groningen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Groningen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Groningen kick off?
Willem II vs Groningen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Groningen?
Willem II 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Willem II vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Groningen part of?
Willem II vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 30% chance of winning, Groningen a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Willem II and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Groningen in?
Willem II (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D. Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
30%
3.28
25%
4.00
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.78
1.55
Groningen xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
6%
15.41
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Willem II and 1.55 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Groningen in 75%.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Groningen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Groningen have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Willem II or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Groningen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Groningen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Willem II's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, Groningen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 0%, Groningen 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 50% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Willem II have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Willem II's recent matches and 75% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Willem II's recent games and 50% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Groningen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Groningen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Groningen 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.24 xG and Groningen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.75 / defence 1.33 against Groningen attack 1.02 / defence 1.38, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 30% | Draw 25% | Groningen 44%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Groningen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Willem II scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.