Waalwijk 1-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Vitesse travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.33 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.00 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Waalwijk 67% | Vitesse 0%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 67% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.54 xG and Vitesse 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.910 / defence 0.991 | Vitesse attack 0.716 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.139. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Waalwijk games / 3 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 55% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 20%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Vitesse 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 67% | Vitesse 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 55% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Waalwijk 1.54 / Vitesse 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.910 / def 0.991 | Vitesse attack 0.716 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Vitesse xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Vitesse kick off?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is Waalwijk vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Vitesse part of?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 55% chance of winning, Vitesse a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waalwijk and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and Vitesse in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-D. Vitesse (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.91) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.89
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.35
0.81
Vitesse xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
23.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.81 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.33 PPG, Vitesse on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 0.33 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Vitesse in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Waalwijk or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vitesse in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Waalwijk's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 4, Vitesse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2025, when Vitesse 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Waalwijk 67% BTTS, Vitesse 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 67% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitesse in 33%; Vitesse in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 0% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 67% of Vitesse's.
Do Waalwijk and Vitesse tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.54 xG and Vitesse 0.81 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Vitesse attack 0.72 / defence 1.36, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 55% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 20%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.33 PPG, Vitesse 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.