Waalwijk 1-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Utrecht in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Waalwijk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Utrecht (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Utrecht have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Utrecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Utrecht — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 67% and Utrecht 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 56% | Utrecht 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 0.94 xG and Utrecht 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.695 / defence 1.279 | Utrecht attack 0.875 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.308. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Waalwijk games / 27 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 24% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Utrecht 2.04. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Waalwijk 50% | Utrecht 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 24% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Waalwijk 0.94 / Utrecht 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.695 / def 1.279 | Utrecht attack 0.875 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Utrecht xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Utrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is Waalwijk vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Utrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 24% chance of winning, Utrecht a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waalwijk and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Utrecht in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.69x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.88x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
24%
4.12
26%
3.78
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.40
1.46
Utrecht xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
6%
17.80
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.2 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.46 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 9D 12L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 11W 7D 9L from 27 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Utrecht are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 11W 7D 9L in their last 27 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.08 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-4 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
5
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Utrecht have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 54%, Utrecht 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Waalwijk) and 62% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 31%; Waalwijk have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 54% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of Utrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Utrecht tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Waalwijk and Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 0.94 xG and Utrecht 1.46 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.69 / defence 1.28 against Utrecht attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 24% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 49%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 56%, Utrecht 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.