Waalwijk 2-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Waalwijk, 1.20 for NEC Nijmegen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 57% versus NEC Nijmegen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 50% | NEC Nijmegen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 0.99 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.648 / defence 1.319 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.985 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.355. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.648 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Waalwijk games / 14 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 21% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 55%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | NEC Nijmegen 1.82. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 43% | NEC Nijmegen 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 21% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Waalwijk 0.99 / NEC Nijmegen 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.648 / def 1.319 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.985 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.76
NEC Nijmegen xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen?
Waalwijk 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 21% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.65) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.98x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
21%
4.74
23%
4.27
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.75
1.76
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
4%
27.56
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.76 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 2W 6D 6L from 14 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 5L across 14 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.36 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 6-1 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
1
Draws
5
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 43%, NEC Nijmegen 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Waalwijk) and 57% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Waalwijk's games and 71% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Waalwijk's recent games and 57% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat NEC Nijmegen 2-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 0.99 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.76 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.65 / defence 1.32 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 21% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 55%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 50%, NEC Nijmegen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.