Waalwijk 3-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Waalwijk welcome Groningen to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 2D 6L at Mandemakers Stadion — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Groningen — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 0, Groningen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Groningen trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 63% and Groningen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 50% | Groningen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 0.98 xG and Groningen 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.649 / defence 1.308 | Groningen attack 0.982 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.271. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Waalwijk games / 30 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 23% | Draw 25% | Groningen 53%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 1.89. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | Groningen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 23% | Draw 25% | Groningen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Waalwijk 0.98 / Groningen 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.649 / def 1.308 | Groningen attack 0.982 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Groningen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Groningen xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Groningen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Waalwijk 3 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Groningen part of?
Waalwijk vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 23% chance of winning, Groningen a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waalwijk and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Groningen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.65x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
23%
4.39
25%
4.05
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.61
1.63
Groningen xG
4.39
23%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
4%
22.43
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.63 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 10D 14L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 0.93 PPG, Groningen on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waalwijk's home form reads 4W 3D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.23 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Groningen in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Groningen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 6W 10D 14L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Groningen have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; Groningen away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Groningen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Groningen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Groningen won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Groningen?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 53%, Groningen 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Waalwijk) and 67% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Waalwijk's games and 73% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Waalwijk's matches and 67% of Groningen's.
Do Waalwijk and Groningen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Groningen in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Groningen 3-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 0.98 xG and Groningen 1.63 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.65 / defence 1.31 against Groningen attack 0.98 / defence 1.35, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 23% | Draw 25% | Groningen 53%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 50%, Groningen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.93 PPG, Groningen 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.