Waalwijk 1-1 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host GO Ahead Eagles at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.71 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, GO Ahead Eagles have recorded 2W 0D 5L from 7 outings — 0.86 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. GO Ahead Eagles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GO Ahead Eagles's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 0.71 PPG versus GO Ahead Eagles's 0.86. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 71% versus GO Ahead Eagles 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 71% | GO Ahead Eagles 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.94 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.809 / defence 1.169 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.652 / defence 1.764. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.429. GO Ahead Eagles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.764 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Waalwijk games / 7 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 57% | Draw 22% | GO Ahead Eagles 21%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | GO Ahead Eagles 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 67% | GO Ahead Eagles 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 57% | Draw 22% | GO Ahead Eagles 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Waalwijk 1.94 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.809 / def 1.169 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.652 / def 1.764 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
GO Ahead Eagles xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 57% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.14 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.81x the league average against GO Ahead Eagles's defence at 1.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GO Ahead Eagles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.57
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.03
1.09
GO Ahead Eagles xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
33.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.09 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, GO Ahead Eagles sit at 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 0.71 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waalwijk's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, GO Ahead Eagles have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GO Ahead Eagles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 0.86 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; GO Ahead Eagles in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
GO Ahead Eagles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waalwijk's record when hosting GO Ahead Eagles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
4
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Waalwijk 5-3 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 67%, GO Ahead Eagles 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 67% for GO Ahead Eagles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GO Ahead Eagles in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play GO Ahead Eagles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 33% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 67% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GO Ahead Eagles in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.94 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.09 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.65 / defence 1.76, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 57% | Draw 22% | GO Ahead Eagles 21%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 71%, GO Ahead Eagles 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.71 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.