Waalwijk 2-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Waalwijk welcome Emmen to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Emmen — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Emmen have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.00 PPG, Emmen 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Emmen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Emmen trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 65% versus Emmen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 55% | Emmen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.20 xG and Emmen 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.161 / defence 1.041 | Emmen attack 0.732 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.186. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Waalwijk games / 18 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 65% | Draw 22% | Emmen 13%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Emmen 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 65% | Draw 22% | Emmen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Waalwijk 2.20 / Emmen 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.161 / def 1.041 | Emmen attack 0.732 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Emmen xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Emmen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Waalwijk 2 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Emmen part of?
Waalwijk vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 65% chance of winning, Emmen a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waalwijk and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Emmen 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Emmen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.16) and Emmen's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
65%
1.53
22%
4.59
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.11
0.90
Emmen xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
11%
9.04
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
1%
71.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.90 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 18D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.84 PPG from 51 outings (28W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 9W 6D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.49 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Emmen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 13W 18D 20L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Emmen have gone 28W 10D 13L in their last 51 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.32 PPG; Emmen away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Emmen in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Waalwijk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Emmen?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Emmen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Waalwijk 5-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Emmen?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 60%, Emmen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Waalwijk) and 44% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Emmen in 36%; Waalwijk have failed to score in 28% of games; Emmen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 44% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Waalwijk's recent games and 44% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Emmen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Emmen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Emmen 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 2.20 xG and Emmen 0.90 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Emmen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Emmen attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 51/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 65% | Draw 22% | Emmen 13%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 55%, Emmen 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.