Waalwijk 0-5 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Ajax travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.10 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax away from home this season: 3W 2D 0L from 5 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 5 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ajax are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ajax in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 83% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 67% versus Ajax 8%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 50% | Ajax 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 0.65 xG and Ajax 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.666 / defence 1.056 | Ajax attack 1.013 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.309. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Waalwijk games / 12 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 17% | Draw 28% | Ajax 55%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Ajax 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | Ajax 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 17% | Draw 28% | Ajax 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Waalwijk 0.65 / Ajax 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.666 / def 1.056 | Ajax attack 1.013 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Ajax (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Ajax xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Ajax kick off?
Waalwijk vs Ajax kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Waalwijk 0 - 5 Ajax.
Where is Waalwijk vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Ajax part of?
Waalwijk vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 17% chance of winning, Ajax a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Waalwijk and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.67) and Ajax's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
17%
5.81
28%
3.63
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.05
1.40
Ajax xG
5.81
17%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
4%
23.58
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 18.1 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.40 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 2W 5D 5L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax's form line: 8W 3D 1L from 12 games, 2.25 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 3.08 scored and 0.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ajax in 8%.
Defensively: Ajax in 83% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Ajax have gone 8W 3D 1L in their last 12 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.80 PPG; Ajax away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ajax in 83%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Ajax won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
0
Draws
8
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Ajax have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Ajax 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 60%, Ajax 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Waalwijk and 20% for Ajax.
On the defensive side: Ajax in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 20% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Waalwijk's recent games and 20% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Ajax tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Ajax in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Waalwijk 0-5 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 0.65 xG and Ajax 1.40 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 1.40 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.67 / defence 1.06 against Ajax attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 17% | Draw 28% | Ajax 55%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 50%, Ajax 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajax's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 8% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 83% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.