Vitesse 0-4 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Rotterdam are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 61% versus Sparta Rotterdam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 67% | Sparta Rotterdam 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.50 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.835 / defence 1.393 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.876 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.300. Data: 45 Vitesse games / 46 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 36% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 39%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 80% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 36% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Vitesse 1.50 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.835 / def 1.393 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.876 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Vitesse 0 - 4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 36% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.83x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.88x) against Vitesse's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
36%
2.81
25%
4.00
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.08
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.75
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.59 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 8D 19L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.20 PPG from 46 outings (14W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Vitesse against 1.20 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Vitesse's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.09 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 19W 8D 19L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Vitesse's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.41 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Rotterdam have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vitesse
1
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Vitesse 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 68%, Sparta Rotterdam 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Vitesse and 54% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Vitesse's recent matches and 41% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Vitesse's matches and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Vitesse 0-4 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.50 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.83 / defence 1.39 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 36% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 39%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, Sparta Rotterdam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.41 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.