Vitesse 0-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host NEC Nijmegen at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at GelreDome this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vitesse at 1.00 PPG versus NEC Nijmegen's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Vitesse, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 4–1 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 61% versus NEC Nijmegen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 67% | NEC Nijmegen 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.20 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.873 / defence 1.411 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.833 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.283. Data: 49 Vitesse games / 49 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 28% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 42%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | NEC Nijmegen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | NEC Nijmegen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 28% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Vitesse 1.20 / NEC Nijmegen 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.873 / def 1.411 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.833 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.51
NEC Nijmegen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Vitesse 0 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 28% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen in?
Vitesse (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.40
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.71
1.51
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
6%
15.94
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.51 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 11D 20L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.14 PPG from 49 outings (13W 17D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.33 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vitesse's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.18 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.33 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Vitesse won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 67%, NEC Nijmegen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vitesse and 46% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vitesse's games and 54% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vitesse's matches and 46% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 0-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.20 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.51 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.2 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.87 / defence 1.41 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 28% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 42%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, NEC Nijmegen 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.33 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.