Vitesse 1-3 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vitesse and Groningen meet at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Vitesse's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 4W 2D 3L from 9 Eredivisie appearances (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Groningen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Vitesse. A 0.80 PPG lead over Groningen (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vitesse have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Groningen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vitesse, 0 for Groningen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Vitesse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 53% versus Groningen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 58% | Groningen 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.34 xG and Groningen 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.845 / defence 1.135 | Groningen attack 0.833 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.336. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Vitesse games / 19 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 26% | Groningen 35%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Groningen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 67% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 26% | Groningen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Vitesse 1.34 / Groningen 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.845 / def 1.135 | Groningen attack 0.833 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Groningen xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Groningen kick off?
Vitesse vs Groningen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Groningen?
Vitesse 1 - 3 Groningen.
Where is Vitesse vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Groningen part of?
Vitesse vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 39% chance of winning, Groningen a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vitesse and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 0 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Groningen in?
Vitesse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.84) and Groningen's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.83x) against Vitesse's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
39%
2.60
26%
3.79
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.60
1.26
Groningen xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.26 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 11W 3D 5L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vitesse are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.05 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Groningen in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 games (1.89 PPG), while Groningen have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Groningen away?
Vitesse's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.56 PPG; Groningen away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Groningen in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Vitesse have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitesse won 6-0 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Vitesse
0
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 3, Groningen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Vitesse 6-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Groningen?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 67%, Groningen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vitesse and 67% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vitesse's games and 56% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vitesse's matches and 67% of Groningen's.
Do Vitesse and Groningen tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Groningen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Vitesse 1-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.34 xG and Groningen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Groningen attack 0.83 / defence 1.42, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 39% | Draw 26% | Groningen 35%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 58%, Groningen 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Groningen's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.