Vitesse 1-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Fortuna Sittard travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Vitesse have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GelreDome, Vitesse have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Vitesse) versus 1.00 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fortuna Sittard in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vitesse, 0 for Fortuna Sittard and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Vitesse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 60% versus Fortuna Sittard 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 64% | Fortuna Sittard 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.50 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.834 / defence 1.461 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.909 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.292. Data: 42 Vitesse games / 42 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 34% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 43%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Fortuna Sittard 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 60% | Fortuna Sittard 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 34% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Vitesse 1.50 / Fortuna Sittard 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.834 / def 1.461 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.909 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Fortuna Sittard xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard?
Vitesse 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 34% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Sittard 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard in?
Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.83x the league average against Fortuna Sittard's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.30
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.21
1.72
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.46
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.72 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse's recent record stands at 16W 8D 18L from 42 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 24L across 42 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.33 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 12W 6D 24L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Vitesse's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.40 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Vitesse 3-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 65%, Fortuna Sittard 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vitesse and 60% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Vitesse's games and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vitesse's matches and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Vitesse and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Vitesse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.50 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.72 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.83 / defence 1.46 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 34% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 43%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 64%, Fortuna Sittard 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.33 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.