Vitesse 2-5 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Feyenoord travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vitesse haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at GelreDome this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Feyenoord haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Feyenoord — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Vitesse, 0 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Vitesse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 62% versus Feyenoord 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 65% | Feyenoord 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.26 xG and Feyenoord 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.953 / defence 1.065 | Feyenoord attack 1.178 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.341. Data: 34 Vitesse games / 34 Feyenoord games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 47%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Feyenoord 2.13. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 60% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Vitesse 1.26 / Feyenoord 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.953 / def 1.065 | Feyenoord attack 1.178 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Feyenoord xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Feyenoord kick off?
Vitesse vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Vitesse 2 - 5 Feyenoord.
Where is Vitesse vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Feyenoord part of?
Vitesse vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 29% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vitesse and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Feyenoord?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Feyenoord in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.95) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
29%
3.48
24%
4.17
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.94
1.68
Feyenoord xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
5%
18.72
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.68 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 6D 13L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. Vitesse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.09 PPG from 34 outings (22W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. Feyenoord haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vitesse's home form reads 8W 3D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.06 points per game from 17 outings (11W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.24 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Pre-Season
Feyenoord
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 22W 5D 7L in their last 34 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.59 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Feyenoord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vitesse
0
Draws
3
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Feyenoord?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 3, Feyenoord have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Vitesse 1-2 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 65%, Feyenoord 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Vitesse and 71% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Vitesse's games and 59% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vitesse's matches and 71% of Feyenoord's.
Do Vitesse and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Vitesse 2-5 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.26 xG and Feyenoord 1.68 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Feyenoord attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 29% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 47%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 65%, Feyenoord 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.