Vitesse 2-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Feyenoord travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.43 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at GelreDome this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.43 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 5W 0D 1L from 6 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Feyenoord — 1.07 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 50% versus Feyenoord 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 67% | Feyenoord 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 0.84 xG and Feyenoord 2.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.701 / defence 1.538 | Feyenoord attack 1.231 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.478. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 2.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Vitesse games / 6 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 9% | Draw 14% | Feyenoord 78%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 11.11 | Draw 7.14 | Feyenoord 1.28. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vitesse 67% | Feyenoord 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 9% | Draw 14% | Feyenoord 78% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 53% | xG Vitesse 0.84 / Feyenoord 2.80 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.701 / def 1.538 | Feyenoord attack 1.231 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
2.80
Feyenoord xG
53%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Feyenoord kick off?
Vitesse vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Vitesse 2 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Vitesse vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Feyenoord part of?
Vitesse vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 9% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 78% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vitesse and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Feyenoord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and Feyenoord in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-0D-1L in 6 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.17 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.70) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 2.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.6%), 1-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
9%
11.71
14%
7.37
78%
1.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.64
2.80
Feyenoord xG
11.71
9%
Home win
7.37
14%
Draw
1.28
78%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
6%
16.43
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
1%
192.37
34%
2.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.8 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.2 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Vitesse and 2.80 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vitesse's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.17 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Feyenoord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 3.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.33 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Feyenoord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vitesse
0
Draws
3
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Feyenoord?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 3, Feyenoord have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Vitesse 1-2 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 67%, Feyenoord 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vitesse and 100% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 67%; Vitesse have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vitesse's recent matches and 33% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vitesse's matches and 100% of Feyenoord's.
Do Vitesse and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Feyenoord 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 0.84 xG and Feyenoord 2.80 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Feyenoord landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.70 / defence 1.54 against Feyenoord attack 1.23 / defence 0.92, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 9% | Draw 14% | Feyenoord 78%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, Feyenoord 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.