Vitesse 2-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host AZ Alkmaar at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Europa League Play-offs - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vitesse at GelreDome this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitesse 1.30 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitesse, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 56% and AZ Alkmaar 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 64% | AZ Alkmaar 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.25 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.857 / defence 1.317 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.088 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.303. AZ Alkmaar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Vitesse games / 34 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 26% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 52%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | AZ Alkmaar 1.92. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 50% | AZ Alkmaar 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Europa League Play-offs - Final | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 26% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Vitesse 1.25 / AZ Alkmaar 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.857 / def 1.317 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.088 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Vitesse 2 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar is a Europa League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 26% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in?
Vitesse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.86) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
26%
3.91
23%
4.42
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.12
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
4%
25.24
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.87 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 16W 6D 14L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 19W 7D 10L from 36 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.50 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 7W 4D 7L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.89 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 72%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 19W 7D 10L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.33 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 61%, AZ Alkmaar at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Vitesse and 72% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Vitesse's games and 78% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Vitesse's matches and 72% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 at GelreDome, Europa League Play-offs - Final, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.25 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.09 / defence 1.24, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 26% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 52%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 64%, AZ Alkmaar 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.50 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.